In my experience, numbers from SURVEYUSA have been pretty accurate. My station used the service extensively a few years ago, and their numbers for Kerry/Bush and Casey/Santorum were right on. It came out last week that Michael Bloomberg is doing his own polling in every state. Assuming that the SurveyUSA numbers are accurate, it will be interesting to see if Bloomberg's numbers are different and if decides to run anyway. Read on:
Poll: Bloomberg would lose key states
NEW YORK, Jan. 16 (UPI) --
New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg would lose the U.S. presidential vote in key states if he runs as an independent, a new poll indicates.
The poll by SurveyUSA showed that despite his strong approval ratings in New York, he would lose in the city, The New York Sun reported Wednesday.
In the best scenario for Bloomberg, he would get 28 percent of the vote in a three-way race between Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill, and Republican former Arkansas Gov. Michael Huckabee, losing to Obama.
In another hypothetical match-up, Bloomberg would get 18 percent of the vote in a race against fellow New Yorkers, Sen. Hillary Clinton and former Mayor Rudy Giuliani.
In California, which has more electoral votes than any other state and would likely be critical to a presidential victory, he does no better than 12 percent, the poll indicated.
The survey found that one-in-four national voters do not know who Bloomberg is, and that only 11 percent have a favorable impression of the billionaire mayor.
No more than 13 percent said they would vote for him in a presidential election.